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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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