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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 10 July 14
SGX EXPANDS ACROSS THE BULKS WITH NEW COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) is expanding its bulk commodity derivatives offering by launching new coking and thermal coal products on 4 ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
HANDY: SMALL INCREASE; PANAMAX: POSITIVE TONE; CAPESIZE: PAPER VALUES REMAIN WEEK
Handy
It is a general increase in activity in both hemispheres whereas rates have just experienced a small increase. In the Feast we see stable a ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIP INVESTMENTS ARE TRENDING LOWER
Most ship owners are deeming current ship prices on the high side, refraining from making serious commitments in new acquisitions or newbuilding or ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADVISED POWER UTILITIES TO INCREASE COAL IMPORTS
COALspot.com: The government of India has advised power utilities to increase coal imports to meet fuel shortages and those that have fuel supply p ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
PANAMAX MARKET FINALLY CORRECTING UPWARDS; AVERAGE TC MORE THAN DOUBLING WEEK ON WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has closed off on Friday on a more positive note, with most segments noting weekly gains and the Panamax market finally correct ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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