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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low p ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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