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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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