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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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