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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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