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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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