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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 18 June 14
CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION SETS RECORD DURING FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China's key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons durin ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Back in January the expectations for Q3 and Q4 were more than great. Talks and claims for a rising BDI and a healthy market were coming from everyw ...
Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand bef ...
Monday, 16 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY FALL 2.34 % MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
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Showing 3651 to 3655 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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