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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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