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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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