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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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