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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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