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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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