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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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