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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PERFORMED WELL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.45 (+0.66%) day on day and US$ 0.30 (+0.44%)&nbs ...
Saturday, 16 August 14
HIGH DEMAND OF IRON ORE SHIPMENTS PUSHED CAPE INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: This week's freight market was buoyant with Cape and panamax index seeing a big jump pushing the BDI above 1,000 points week on c ...
Friday, 15 August 14
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
13-16 October 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
The country’s definitive ...
Thursday, 14 August 14
U.S. STEAM COAL IMPORTS REMAIN DOWN SHARPLY FROM HISTORIC HIGH IN 2007, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. steam coal imports at power plants have fallen significantly from their peak level of more than 30 million tons in 2007 to less ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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