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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 August 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.4% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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