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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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