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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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