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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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