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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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