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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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