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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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