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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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