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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO pre ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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