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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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