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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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