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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES REACHED A RECORD HIGH OF 705,000 MT IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: SGX has announced that, it monthly volumes have reached a record high of 705 lots (705,000 mt) in November 2013 with month-end open in ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
PORT OF NEWCASTLE IN QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 1.22 MMT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 2, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.49 ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
U.S PRODUCED 900.80 MMST YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 Novemb ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERY SHOWS A DECLINE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.63 percept d-d on Friday 29 November 2013. The CFR South ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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