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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
Friday, 06 December 13
INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTED A GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL TO EASE THE BAN ON EXPORTING UNPROCESSED ORE
COALspot.com: Indonesian House of Representatives rejected a proposal from Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik on to ease the ban on ex ...
Friday, 06 December 13
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA FIXED DEC'13 HBA AT US$ 80.31
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 2.18 / MT ...
Friday, 06 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 82.8 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 06 December 13
PANAMAXES HAVE BEEN THE ' WEAPON OF CHOICE' BY MOST DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Low ship prices, the direct consequence of subdued freight rates for the larger part of 2013 have been the main driving force behind this year's ag ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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