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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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