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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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