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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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