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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
Monday, 22 July 13
INDO COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 13 DELIVERY GAINED ON WEEK BUT LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery slightly up on week but fell on day and month on Fri ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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