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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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