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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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