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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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