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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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