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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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