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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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