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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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