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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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