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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
Monday, 18 November 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST ON WEEK; MARGINALLY GAINED ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.25 pmt month on month on Friday 15 Novemb ...
Sunday, 17 November 13
Q4' 14 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.43 PMT (4.34 %) HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 SWAP
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.05 percept d-d on Friday 15 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 16 November 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FIRM DUE TO STRONG COAL ACTIVITIES
COALspot.com: The Cape and Panamax index was down this week and pulling down the BDI by about 5 pct. BDI was closed at 1507 points on Friday 1 ...
Friday, 15 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LINGERING ON, DESPITE PREDICTIONS OF NEW IMMINENT RALLY PRIOR TO THE YEAR'S END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet managed to stage a new comeback after its retreat from the recent multiyear highs. Yesterday, the industry's benchm ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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