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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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