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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES REACHED A RECORD HIGH OF 705,000 MT IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: SGX has announced that, it monthly volumes have reached a record high of 705 lots (705,000 mt) in November 2013 with month-end open in ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
PORT OF NEWCASTLE IN QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 1.22 MMT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 2, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.49 ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
U.S PRODUCED 900.80 MMST YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 Novemb ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERY SHOWS A DECLINE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.63 percept d-d on Friday 29 November 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
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