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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 27 November 13
SHIP OWNERS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DRY BULK CARRIERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners once again turned to more dry bulk carrier ordering over the course of the past week, as more and more appear convinced of the industry ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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