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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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