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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.57 LESSER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.49 pmt month on month on Friday 6 Decembe ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DECLINE TREND IN Q2 & Q3' 14
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 6.76 percept month on month as on Friday 6 December 2013. T ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
RBCT SHIPPED 63.446 MMT OF COALS YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 63,446,232 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
SUPRAMAX SHIPS FOR EC INDIA TO CHINA ROUTE BEING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 13K - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm due to high Iron ore demand. The cape index was up by almost 25 pct this week. The grain seaso ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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