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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO pre ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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