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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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