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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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