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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 May 13
OPG POWER VENTURES OF INDIA LOOKING FOR 210,000 MT OF 4,200 GAR INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com - OPG Power Ventures Plc (OPG) is an AIM listed (London Stock Exchange) and fast growing developer and operator of power plants in Indi ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
HANDY : THE ATLANTIC MARKET REMAINS UNCHANGED - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains unchanged. USG-Feast rates were around USD 19k. Little change from last week in the Pacific, fewer stems and tonn ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 11.74 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN Q1
COALspot.om - Colombia produced about 18,388,972.94 mt of coal for the first quarter of 2013.
Q1' 2013 coal production was around 21.42 p ...
Wednesday, 22 May 13
COKAL SIGNS JV WITH MDM, FOR BARITO RIVER BARGING
COALspot.com - Cokal Limited (ASX: CKA) has announced that it has entered into a 50:50 Joint Venture (JV) with Meratus Advance Maritime (MDM) one of ...
Tuesday, 21 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS SEEN FALLING WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,205,024 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 20 May 2013, Newcast ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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