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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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