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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong ap ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
COAL PRICES STRUGGLE TO FIRM UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.18 percent week on week and 0.03 percent ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR S7 AND S8 SECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freights are remains weak week ended 31 May 2013, as BDI fell 2.05 pct and closed at 809 points on 31 May 2013.
The Cape ...
Friday, 31 May 13
US PRODUCED 18.5 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 25 MAY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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