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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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